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Activity title

Futures Assessed alongside socio-Technical Evolutions (FATE)

Activity Reference

SAS-123

Panel

System Analysis and Studies

Security Classification

PUBLIC RELEASE

Status

Active

Activity type

RTG

Start date

2016

End date

2019

Keywords

assessment, disruptions, Futures, innovation, technical capabilities

Background

The identification of both futures and technologies that are disruptive has been studied independently by various NATO task groups. For the alliance to keep abreast if not ahead of technological advancements that are increasingly led by industries outside of defence and security; and societal demands that are shaping the fate of technologies and hence disruptions, studying both these variables concurrently has become an imperative for NATO.

Objectives

To develop Futures Assessed alongside socio-Technical Evolutions (FATE) method(s) to study the interactions between diverse futures and socio-technical evolutions concurrently. In particular to (1) Develop criteria to evaluate and analyze the interactions between the two variables and (2) assess the ability of these two variables to cause disruptions in defence and security.

Topics

1. Identification of scientific methods and tools • Identify means to develop futures, e.g. alternate futures, La prospective, cone of plausibility etc. and • Identify technologies and their applications in the forms of systems with inputs from horizon scanning and scientometric studies and other best practices 2. Create a Database of available methods, tools and institutions • Collate identified methods and associated institutions with resident expertise into a Database for studying future scenarios and technical systems 3. Develop a method/framework to study futures and technical systems • Develop a method/framework to study the interactions between diverse futures and technologies and/or technical systems concurrently • Assess the ability of these two variables to cause disruptions in defence and security operations • Develop criteria to evaluate and analyse their interactions

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