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Activity title

Predictive Analysis of Adversarial Cyber Operations

Activity Reference

IST-129 (IWA)

Panel

Information Systems Technology

Security Classification

NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Status

Active

Activity type

RTG

Start date

2015

End date

2018

Keywords

Course of Action, Cyber Defence, Cyber Operations, Military Planning, Predictive Analysis

Background

Predictive analysis is used in many domains other than cyber. Extending this approach to the cyber domain requires an understanding of the state of the art and practice. Future coalition operations require a common concept and approach for Predictive Analysis of Adversarial Cyber Operations. Highly scalable, temporally efficient, and integrated analysis will be needed to anticipate an intelligent adversary’s future options of attack vectors and tactics. IST-129 is laying the foundation for those future technologies and approaches, thus enabling cyber defenders to anticipate and effectively counter attack paths of the cyber adversary

Objectives

We are currently characterising the current research on predictive analysis in the cyber domain to develop a comprehensive roadmap for a set of methodologies, technologies and tools to defensively counter adversarial cyber operations in realtime.

Topics

Coalition cyber operations, military decision-making process, intelligence preparation of the cyber battlefield, adversary situation assessment, adversary course of action development, war gaming, mission planning, action - reaction - counter-action, convergence of kinetic, electromagnetic and cyber warfare through the use of e.g., heuristic methods, templates of CoA and order of battle, adversary profiling, Markovian models, game theory, limited rationality games, partially observable games, stochastic control theory, plan recognition, behaviour and intent modelling, and decision theory.

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