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Activity title

Analytical Methods for Casualty Rate Estimation

Activity Reference

SAS-ET-EC

Panel

System Analysis and Studies

Security Classification

NATO UNCLASSIFIED

Status

Proposed

Activity type

ET

Start date

2018

End date

2019

Keywords

Casualty Rate Estimation

Background

The modelling, estimation and analysis of casualty figures for operations is a vital component of military planning. It has significant implications at the tactical, operational and strategic levels. Whilst NATO ACO has an approved tool for Casualty Rate Estimation, SABERS, the use of this tool amongst the NATO Readiness Forces is not understood or tested. It has been found that various other estimation tools and methods exist, some nationally owned and some locally generated. This lack of commonality is concerning and issues have arisen where formations planning for the same operation have differing casualty estimates and medical requirements. To support a move to commonality an initial analytical study is required across ACO and NATO nations to ascertain the various approaches in use for Casualty Rate Estimation and their validation and ownership. This would be followed, in time, by a scenario generation exercise to explore the results of various analytical tools and model development.

Objectives

Examine current approaches to Casualty Rate Estimation. It should identify, compare and contrast current approaches used to directly support NATO ACO HQs, NATO Readiness Formations and national HQs.

Topics

• Assessment and comparison of the analytical methods and models for casualty estimation currently in use, including: Scope of application (e.g. to different warfare domains (Sea, Air, Land, Space, Cyber), operation types and operating environment types. Note that the ET may decide to restrict the scope that’s covered by the subsequent activity; How the methods and models are used; Validation and verification / fitness for purpose status; Cross-comparison of casualty estimates for specific scenario vignettes. • Recommendations for future development.

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