|Planning for Uncertain Defence Budget Increases|
|System Analysis and Studies|
Defence budgets, Long term planning, Uncertainty
A key factor in long term defence planning is the size of future defence budgets. However, future defence budgets will always be uncertain due to a wide array of factors. The consequences of failing budget assumptions may be particularly severe during planned expansion and/or restructuring of the Armed Forces. In this context, an important question in defence planning is: How and to what degree should flexibility be included in the development plan in order to handle the uncertain assumption of increasing budgets?
All NATO nations are committed to increasing their defence expenditure towards the aim of at least 2 per cent of GDP by 2024. For the majority of NATO countries this will require a substantial increase in defence spending in the years ahead.
The objective of the activity is to increase understanding of how the uncertainty of future budgets can be handled in long-term planning.
The following scientific topics should be covered:
• Cost modelling of military development plans.
• Analysis of future budget scenarios.
• Operational risk assessments.
• Optimization of investment plans.