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Activity title

Future Strategic Environment Assessment: Framework for Analysis

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System Analysis and Studies

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Emerging Security Challenges, Security Environment, Strategic Environment, Strategic Situational Awareness, Threat Assessment


Since 2014, strategic security environment has dramatically changed driven by the rapid rate of technological advancements; political, economic, social and environmental developments that increased complexity and uncertainty. NATO’s strategic assumptions have also changed, and they will continue to be challenged. The complexity and rapid rate of change require in-depth understanding of the future strategic environment that is one of the main drivers of the Alliance’s adaptation, to ensure NATO’s military capacity with especially its command structure remains fit for purpose. There are efforts to anticipate and develop an understanding of the future security environment such as Strategic Foresight Analysis and Framework for Future Alliance Operations. However, there is no unified code that could be applied and used by NATO and Nations.


The aim of the research task group is to develop a code of best practice on how future strategic environment assessments are conducted.


• Review of academic literature on the strategic environment assessments; • Review of existing tools and methods and identification of appropriate ones; • Case studies of strategic environment analyses in different NATO and non-NATO member states; • Development of a theoretical framework for the strategic environment assessment that would best reflect evolving reality and foster shared assessments within the Alliance; • Mixed methods approach including indicators and drivers; • Holistic and systemic approach; • Combining different timeframes; • Linkages between assessment and planning and decision making process; • Assessments tailored for purpose.

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