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Activity title

How could Technology Development Transform the Future Operational Environment

Activity Reference

SAS-159

Panel

SAS

Security Classification

Other

Status

Active

Activity type

RTG

Start date

2020-03-04T00:00:00Z

End date

2023-12-31T00:00:00Z

Keywords

Capability, Disruptive, Emerging, Foresight, Future, Operational, Technology

Background

We are in a time of rapid technology development. Technological leaps like Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) or quantum computers may be, if not around the corner, possible within the next 20 or so years, i.e. within the long-term defence planning perspective. The promises (and fears) of full autonomy both for civil and military applications as well as the developments in synthetic biology and other technology areas mean that both civil society and military organizations may stand before enormous challenges within the next few decades. Nations as well as organizations like NATO and EDA are trying to understand the potential of the ongoing developments in technology and identify the game changing technologies (technological developments that significantly alters the conduct of conflict, forces the adaptation of planning processes and changes long-term goals, strategies, concepts and plans) that could become available in the future. NATO needs to exploit the opportunities made possible by technology development to meet future operational challenges and threats in order to improve both effect and force protection. Considering the various emerging conventional and unconventional threats against NATO, which will also exploit the new technological opportunities, the future paradigm for mission effectiveness, force protection, survival and conventional tactics must evolve to respond to new technological developments and be able to counter these threats.

Objectives

- Explore the possible consequences of potentially game changing technology development on the future operational environment (FOE) in the 2040 to 2050 perspective, - Better understand how to identify potentially game changing technology in the future, - Advise decision makers on where to initiate changes in military capability development and how to direct investment in technology and capability development.

Topics

- Development of a methodology to better understand the character of potential game-changing technologies - Strategic analysis relating to future warfare, including developments in the operational environment - Application of the above mentioned methodology in a potential future operational environment with the use of case studies, scenarios and vignettes.

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