Course of Action Analysis in the 21st Century

Course of Action Analysis in the 21st Century

Course of Action (CoA) analysis is a mandated component of NATO operational planning and also an essential element of scenario testing used to support the refinement of the NATO Minimum Capability Requirement (MCR) within Step 2 of The NATO Defence Planning Process. The evolving global security environment has led to a renewed focus within NATO on the analysis of large scale, collective defence scenarios for which campaign analysis models and war gaming were historically applied to CoA analyses.

Specialists from Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC), NATO Communications and Information Agency (NCIA), NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT), The Center for Next Generation Warfare (USA) and Finnish Defence Research Agency met for their third face-to-face meeting from 01 to 03 April 2019 at the STO Collaborative Support Office in Neuilly-sur-Seine, France, to work on their Technical Report. This multi-national research effort aims at improving CoA analyses by leveraging the expertise and capabilities within the nations to enhance NATO and national defence and operational planning. Other organizations involved in this research are US Naval Postgraduate School, US Army Center for Army Analysis and NATO Allied Land Command, Czech National Defence University.

Mr Alan Campbell, Principal Operations Analyst at NATO Communications and Information Agency (NCIA) and Co-Chair for the team explained, “After analysing our survey data we concluded that within NATO enhanced utilisation of streamlined wargaming techniques could enhance Course of Action analysis”.

“As Wargaming is a standard component of the strategic planning processes of NATO and its Member nations, the team realized that there are possibilities to improve course of action analysis methods in light of the current operating environment. These improvements could potentially be showcased by a follow-on activity in the form of a demonstration of a wargame application or training course” added Dr Murray Dixson, Defence Scientist at Defence Research and Development Canada (DRDC) and second Co-Chair for the team.

Research Technical Group SAS-130 is a three-year multi-national initiative and supported by the NATO STO’s Collaboration Support Office. It is supervised by the System Analysis and Studies (SAS) Panel - NATO STO’s expert analytical advice panel. The SAS Panel develops and oversees studies, analysis and information exchange activities that explore how operational capability can best be provided and enhanced through the exploitation of new technologies, new forms of organization or new concepts of operation. Such studies serve to improve National and NATO doctrine and operations, and when costs are considered, provide advice on the most cost-effective options for the Alliance.

Please contact the SAS Panel Office if interested in supporting this scientific work.