STO-Activities: (no title)
Activity title:
Alliance Space Deterrence Framework
Activity Reference:
SCI-SAS-351
Panel:
SCI
Security Classification:
Other
Status:
Active
Activity type:
RTG
Start date:
2022-03-10T00:00:00Z
Actual End date:
2026-03-10T00:00:00Z
Keywords:
Antisatellite, ASAT, Counterspace, Deterrence, Deterrence Framework, Satellites, Space, Space Law, Space Policy, Space Situational Awareness, SSA
Background:
The space domain has become increasingly contested and congested with more countries and commercial entities developing and deploying space systems. Critical domestic and military infrastructures are increasingly reliant on space, making the protection of these assets and their capabilities crucial. The threats to these systems are increasing. Aggressive acts to interfere with space systems span a range of tactics, to include grey zone tactics, as adversaries attempt to achieve their objectives while staying below the threshold of what states would consider a use of force or armed attack. While satellites have long been an integral part of grey zone activities, states fielding weapons, to include dual-use systems, capable of impacting space assets, whether terrestrial or space-based, impose another dimension of ambiguity to these activities. State actors such as China and Russia have been developing kinetic and non-kinetic weapon systems and other capabilities, coupled with emerging tactics such as rendezvous and proximity operations, which provide them the ability to disrupt, degrade, deny, or destroy space capabilities. Such measures are designed to temporarily or permanently impair or eliminate access, use, or effective employment of vital Allied space assets. These actions could potentially degrade or eliminate critical decision advantages, command and control, communications, intelligence, weapons systems, and other capabilities critical to monitoring and assessing strategic developments and conducting military operations. Given a lack of internationally agreed and effectively communicated standards or norms, state actors are encouraged to create their own standards of space behaviour.
The NATO STO SCI-345 activity developed roadmaps to advance space as a force multiplier for NATO. The team of experts for the SCI-345 institutional track identified the need for an analysis of deterrence options, minimum thresholds, and legal authorities towards an Alliance-wide space deterrence policy. This proposed comprehensive space deterrence framework will structure deterrence options, based on tools assessed to deter potential adversaries from threatening space capabilities, within legal and policy boundaries, in order to simplify and expedite effective decision-making. The proposed framework could serve as a model for all space-faring nations in broadly messaging the consequences in response to nefarious actions against Allies’ and Partners’ space systems.
Objectives:
• Develop a methodology and conduct a high-level technical and capability assessment of Alliance options to counter space threats.
• Assess legal and policy aspects to counter space threats, to include perspectives by the member and partner Nations with regard to authorities, constraints, and international law.
• Identify and evaluate mechanisms to facilitate NATO’s space deterrence and defence cooperation and coordination with its member and partner nations.
• Conduct experiments, exercises, and wargames with decision-makers and policymakers to evaluate baseline thresholds for response to threatening or hostile behaviours.
In determining the contours of a deterrence framework, the group will study how best to advance diplomatic, informational, military, and economic tools to address emerging threats to outer space systems, with due regard for the legal and policy implications.
The group will prepare a final report, detailing the study questions, the methodology for addressing the questions, the assumptions underpinning the research, and conclude with formulating and testing effectiveness of a space deterrence framework.
Topics:
Specific technologies and problems of interest include but are not limited to conducting research on the following:
• Space contributions to military missions
• Space situational awareness capabilities supporting verification and decision-making
• Profiles, decision processes, and space capabilities of potential adversaries
• Alliance / multinational deterrence campaign planning and execution
• Deterrence assessment
• Range of kinetic and non-kinetic diplomatic, information, military and economic options
• Policy and legal implications of deterrence options
In pursuit of the overall objective of enhancing strategic stability in space, the foregoing research will inform the team’s construct of an analytic space deterrence framework based on proposed standards of behaviour, which would include defensive and diplomatic mechanisms that either raise the inherent costs of conducting the attack and/or minimize the benefit of the attack in the first place.
Contact:
Open2Partners:
Title:
Created at 19/10/2021 13:00 by System Account
Last modified at 16/05/2024 18:00 by System Account
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