STO-Activities: (no title)
Activity title:
The Effects of Climate Change on Security
Activity Reference:
SAS-182
Panel:
SAS
Security Classification:
PUBLIC RELEASE
Status:
Active
Activity type:
RTG
Start date:
2023-01-01T00:00:00Z
Actual End date:
2025-12-31T00:00:00Z
Keywords:
adaptation, Climate change, climate security, conflict, defence, education, energy transition, environment, geopolitics, health
Background:
Based on work conducted by an exploratory team (ET) on Climate Security and Defence Activities (SAS-ET-FB), an assessment was conducted on the information needs and knowledge gaps about the mission and purpose of the NATO alliance in the climate crisis. The main result is this proposal for the creation of a research task group (RTG) that would contribute to NATO’s Climate Change and Security Action Plan (CCSAP), to the mission of NATO’s Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence, and to NATO’s annual Climate Change and Security Impact Assessment (CCSIA).
The members of the ET identified two key needs/gaps that this RTG will bridge. First, as NATO aims “to become the leading international organisation when it comes to understanding and adapting to the impact of climate change on security” (NATO 2021), cooperation between the defence and security (policy) communities and climate change science need consolidation and improvement. Anticipating and planning for the security implications of climate change requires close cooperation between climate scientists, climate impact and conflict scholars, and defence decision-makers.
Second, while there are increasingly numerous climate security publications and conferences that communicate climate security risks, there is a dearth of evidence on particular world regions that are highly relevant for NATO, just as there are remaining gaps between conflict research output and its access and uptake by NATO. Information, data, and analyses are available, but sufficient tools, (early-warming) systems, and guidance for their translation into actionable strategic knowledge are needed. As such, this RTG will assess the transformation of NATO’s geopolitical and strategic environment caused by climate change.
Objectives:
This RTG aims to contribute to NATO’s strategic knowledge, planning, and adaptability under the conditions of climate change. First, being located at S&T, the RTG will enable synergies between climate science and technical approaches found at S&T and beyond, and the communities of policy and strategic analysis, security studies, and conflict research. Second, this RTG will provide direct support for the CCSAP’s four goals: increased Allied awareness, adaptation to climate change, contributing to mitigation, and enhanced outreach. Moreover, this work will address several key gaps in the literature, contribute to the mission of CCASCOE, inform the NATO’s climate security agenda, and provide cooperation and support for the climate-relevant projects of the Science for Peace and Security Programme.
Topics:
The ET concluded that this RTG should be comprised of four research sub-groups: three along the “flank approach” (or regional approach) and one on NATO’s climate mitigation efforts. RTG activities will consist of basic and applied research that bring the possibility of summative or formative evaluation, Awareness, and evidence-based Early Warning and strategic foresight.
The flank (or regional) approach addresses the Awareness pillar of the CCSAP through a division of labour between three sub-groups: the northern flank (Arctic), the southern flank (Northern and Western Africa), and the eastern flank (Eastern Eurasia). Each flank sub-group will evaluate the context-specific sociopolitical and socioeconomic factors of in/stability that climate change brings to the region (identifying the problems and future scenarios), how Europe and NATO allies do and could respond (the solutions), and how the two interact (i.e. solutions can solve problems but they can also create new problems). The analysis of each flank will examine 1) the regional dynamics of climate security and 2) how these dynamics are linked to NATO. The three sub-groups will then come together to compare and analyse the possible links and interactions between flanks.
To harmonize the research output of the flank groups, their work will be organized around four core questions or issues:
1. Assessments of localized water, food, and energy risks.
2. Assessment of associated security and conflict risks.
3. Identification of potentials for cooperation, mitigation, and adaptation.
4. Implications for NATO’s strategic environment, planning, and mission.
The ET also concluded that NATO’s contribution to climate mitigation is essential for its credibility as an international organisation. The fourth sub-group will thus work on climate mitigation along three lines of inquiry:
1. Mitigation policies: assessment of how NATO activities and installations can be impacted by current and future climate policies and legislation, and how NATO could contribute to formulating voluntary goals to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions along with the Allies’ own emission goals.
2. Low carbon technologies: assessment of the more recent military technological programs within NATO countries to identify how operational efficiency and climate mitigation can work together.
3. Operational energy: data on energy demand and consumption in the military will inform Allies’ investment decisions and operational planning. The sub-group will draw on Allies’ best practices, survey partner nations and other international organizations.
Contact:
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Created at 07/10/2022 11:00 by System Account
Last modified at 16/05/2024 19:01 by System Account
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