STO-Activities: (no title)
Activity title:
Energy Security Resilience, Capability and Interoperability
Activity Reference:
SAS-183
Panel:
SAS
Security Classification:
NATO UNCLASSIFIED
Status:
Active
Activity type:
RTG
Start date:
2023-01-01T00:00:00Z
Actual End date:
2025-12-31T00:00:00Z
Keywords:
capabilities, Cyber defense, Energy security, Hybrid Warfare, interoperability, operational energy, resilience
Background:
In July 2020, the NATO Science and Technology Board (STB) authorized the formation of Systems Analysis and Studies (SAS)-163, a program entitled, “Energy Security in the Era of Hybrid Warfare.” The project’s goal was to address the authors’ long-held concerns about the threats that hybrid warfare tactics posed to the NATO Member States’ energy sector, and by extension, the Alliance’s cohesion. Since its inception, SAS-163 has grown to nearly 80 individual subject matter experts representing over a dozen NATO member and PfP states and organizations, indicating the importance with which the Alliance and its members view the growing hybrid warfare threat to energy security.
The basic components of SAS-163 were established on the foundation of a research roadmap on the topic of energy security in this new hybrid warfare environment. The study’s concept encompassed four main pillars: an intellectual framework, a NATO energy security analysis (NESA), a cyber defense analysis, and a literature review.
Objectives:
The primary objective of the team is to expand the utility of the analysis while increasing the depth and scope of critical areas, with an underlying theme of improving resilience, capabilities, and interoperability. For our purposes, we identify these attributes in the following manner: Resilience as the ability of NATO member states collectively or individually to deter, detect, withstand, and recover from a variety of hybrid tactics launched against the energy infrastructure, Capability as allowing NATO to operate more effectively in an energy-constrained environment, and Interoperability, which permits the member states to interact seamlessly in different environments, conditions and platforms
Topics:
1) Enhanced regional focus on the Baltic, Black, and Arctic Seas
These regional analyses will leverage the national case studies from SAS-163, including works on Germany, Poland, and Romania. By expanding to a broader, regional scope, analysis will be centered on two critical bodies of water: the Black and Baltic seas. While these analyses will be separate, there will be an interrelated component which emphasizes standardized capabilities and interoperability in the energy sector across all domains. The NATO defense posture along with the broader area of hybrid warfare and the supply chain will also be considered in these regions.
2) NATO capabilities development and interoperability analysis
We will place greater emphasis on military operational capabilities development and interoperability, and better integration into the NATO Defense Planning Process (NDPP). Interoperability deserves greater emphasis. The goal is to identify gaps and inform current capabilities and interoperability. Resilience among NATO warfighters is the ability to operate in a potentially resource-constrained environment. Resource-constraints can arise from conflict, or from the energy transition to meet net-zero targets by 2050. A deeper assessment of malign influence in the energy sector will be explored. For instance, the importance of an effective strategic communications division to address misinformation efforts.
3) Advanced Cyber Defense Topics Concentrating on Early Warning
The cyber working group will focus on creating a virtual model prototype to improve maritime security by protecting energy critical infrastructure from cyber-attacks. Specifically, the model will focus on the topic: "Threat detection and cyber security incidents prevention in microgrids using emerging technologies - Energy resilience through automatic insulation". How can a microgrid best be isolated from national grid infrastructure to ensure independent energy security and protection from cyber-attacks? Energy storage systems and controllable loads may also be examined. The prototype will use real data from microgrid hardware, wind turbines, photovoltaic panels, biomass, and wave energy extractors to create accurate detection of normal cyber behavior for early detection of malicious cyber intrusions into energy critical infrastructure. The University of Constanta has received EU funding that will provide for the software and hardware needed to produce the virtual demonstrator prototype.
4) Exercise Results
The authors recognize the importance of exercises as cost-effective ways to prepare for and respond to any number of challenges. For this reason, we anticipate more reliance and exercise results in the follow-on analysis. For instance, team members are contributing to several NATO and PfP member state exercises, which will carry-forward into the proposed study. We anticipate the results of these exercises to be implemented in the final report and other reports derived from the project.
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Created at 07/10/2022 11:00 by System Account
Last modified at 16/05/2024 13:00 by System Account
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