STO-Activities: (no title)
Activity title:
Anticipatory Intelligence for Superior Decision-Making
Activity Reference:
SAS-189
Panel:
SAS
Security Classification:
NATO UNCLASSIFIED
Status:
Active
Activity type:
RTG
Start date:
2023-10-23T00:00:00Z
Actual End date:
2026-10-23T00:00:00Z
Keywords:
analysis, anticipatory, forecasting, Intelligence, prediction
Background:
The last decade has seen two lines of development of crucial interest for the future of intelligence analysis in general and prediction (or forecasting) in particular. The first is the development of new human-centric approaches focused on evidence-based methodology for individual analysts and sophisticated aggregation of crowd forecasting. The second is the advancement of machine-centric approaches to the assessment of risk for conflict and other security-related events. This initiative aims to contribute to beneficial integration of these novel ways of producing assessments into intelligence production and the command decision-making it supports.
This application follows consultations in SAS-ET-FG on prediction and intelligence analysis, and was initially inspired by the work done in SAS-114 on intelligence methodology and communication of uncertainty to support command decision-making.
Objectives:
The RTG aims to, on the one hand, be a vessel for exchange between researchers and practitioners and, on the other, facilitate coordination between researchers on research topics and interpretation of results. The first form of exchange, which was a particular strong point of SAS-114, can help inform researchers of the relevance of their research as well as help practitioners understand the applicability of potential results. The second form can function as a catalyst for both research efficiency (coordination or even collaboration) and quality (strengthened peer support and review). While it is expected that intermediary results from participant projects will be presented at RTG meetings, the envisioned tangible output from the task group is a Technical Report at the end of the period (mid 2026).
Topics:
The RTG will explore two overarching topics:
1. Human-centric anticipatory intelligence
2. Machine-centric anticipatory intelligence
The ET consultations brought up several topics that can be thought of as subordinate to these two:
a. Synergetic interplay between human-centric and machine-centric anticipatory intelligence
b. Synergetic interplay between forecasting and other anticipatory forms of analysis (e.g., foresight)
c. Challenges, such as trust, accountability and ethics, for producers and recipients of novel forms of anticipatory intelligence (e.g., machine-centric or crowd-sourced assessments)
d. Governmental anticipatory intelligence in an environment with considerable amounts of PAI (publicly available information) and non-governmental OSINT (open source intelligence) – challenges and solutions for intelligence producers and recipients
Contact:
Open2Partners:
Title:
Created at 18/04/2023 15:00 by System Account
Last modified at 16/05/2024 14:00 by System Account
Go back to list
Home(NATO STO)