STO-Activities: (no title)

Activity title: Indicators and Warnings for Cognitive Warfare in Cyberspace
Activity Reference: SAS-185
Panel: SAS
Security Classification: NATO UNCLASSIFIED
Status: Active
Activity type: RTG
Start date: 2023-09-21T00:00:00Z
Actual End date: 2026-09-21T00:00:00Z
Keywords: analytical framework, cognitive warfare, indicators, warnings
Background: Cognitive Warfare (CW) addresses the human’s ability to process and use the information to destabilization and to influence (civilian and military). CW can be looked upon as a strategy that focuses on altering how a population thinks and through how it acts. CW aims to gain some sort of advantage over another party, or to potentially bring about a change in the target community’s policy, via the cognitive process (HFM-ET-356). CW is an emerging concept. However, many methods and tools have been used by both state and non-state actors to influence human minds in history. Cyberspace is increasingly more important in such endeavors, which is being proved in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as Chinese influence operations around the globe. CW can be conducted entirely in cyberspace by widely accessible open-source tools and social media. Moreover, cyberspace is often the primary source of information for citizens caught in the middle of a conflict, as well as for the international audience in general. CW already plays a crucial role in both violent and non-violent conflicts. Cyberspace allows for instantaneous information flow that can spread to thousands of people in minutes, especially on fast-paced social media, such as Twitter, Telegram, or TikTok. Monitoring activity in cyberspace for indicators of CW is necessary to prepare successful countermeasures. However, it is impossible to manually analyze the data due to the sheer amount of information generated in cyberspace every day. Therefore, a software solution working with quantitative indicators is a crucial capability for NATO. The system of indicators and warnings can detect a change of activity from the baseline and give decision-makers time to react.
Objectives: 1. State of art research
2. Analytical framework & quantitative indicators development
3. Case studies of available software solutions
4. Requirements gathering for the software
5. TAP proposal for the software creation/modification
6. Validation of the framework
Topics: The primary goal of the activity is to create an analytical framework for change detection of CW in cyberspace. Quantitative indicators – both language-independent (e. g., network analysis) and dependent (e. g., content analysis) – will be created for the identification of CW using a dedicated software tool. The activity will focus on indicators relevant to military personnel as this is directly relevant to NATO needs. The initial language for the analysis of content in cyberspace will be English, as it is the most common language in NATO nations. Only several most crucial media platforms – such as Telegram and Twitter – will be analyzed within the activity. However, broadening both language- and data-wise is expected to be possible with the created framework in the future and is highly encouraged. The secondary goal of the activity is to prepare a TAP for the technical solution (software using big data from OSINF) that will use quantitative indicators and be able to issue a warning if the indicators change from a pre-set baseline. The proposed RTG will research the possible use of existing and available software by surveying NATO members that should present computer programs they use for similar purposes and exchange their related experience. Realistic requirements for software will be researched and compared with the presented existing solutions. In addition to the demonstration, interviews and surveys will be used to gather necessary information and best practices. It is expected that the primary data used will be OSINF. However, the modular nature of both the analytical framework and later the technical solution will also potentially enable analyzing visual and audiovisual data in the future, effectively encompassing the multimodal nature of CW. The resulting solution will enable a reliable threat assessment on tactical and operational levels. The capability reached by this activity is also an enabler for any further software solutions for change detection in cyberspace, warning against adversary CW operations. Further languages, platforms, data connections, data types, and indicators may be added in the future to broaden the span for analysis, as well as deepen the knowledge regarding CW and its effects.
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Created at 15/05/2023 14:00 by System Account
Last modified at 16/05/2024 16:00 by System Account
 
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