STO-Activities: (no title)
Activity title:
Analytical Bias in Weak Signal Assessment
Activity Reference:
SAS-HFM-ET-FU
Panel:
SAS
Security Classification:
NATO UNCLASSIFIED
Status:
Proposed
Activity type:
ET
Start date:
2024-11-01T00:00:00Z
Actual End date:
2025-11-01T00:00:00Z
Keywords:
analytical bias, Bias, decision theory, subject matter expert assessment, technical expert assessment
Background:
Weak signal analysis provides futures insight to decisions with large inherent uncertainties. As scientific topics with low maturity are explored, any advice given by experts may be reliant on less-established knowledge. Thus, identifying and analysing weak signals contains significant risks in terms of analytical bias.
This risk is well recognized and there exists quite a substantial literature on bias throughout scientific research scoping, design and data collection, as well as in decision-making at all levels.
There is also a growing practical experience in analysing weak signals for defence purposes, which makes an analysis on how to handle/avoid bias in this work timely and relevant. This activity aims at laying the foundations for an ensuing activity (potentially Specialist Team (ST) or Research Task Group (RTG)) bringing together academic researchers and practitioners for a more in-depth exploration of the current state of practical experience and theory, which underpins these practices within the NATO S&T weak signal community.
Objectives:
The objective of the Exploratory Team on Analytical Bias in Weak Signal Assessment is to initiate a community of interest to identify the most significant areas of analytical bias and mitigations, to support all other NATO proposal activities. Later activity on this theme, potentially as a Specialist Team (ST), will then seek to identify a more extensive expertise and apply to the NATO S&T Landscape to offer guidance and impact to all future NATO endeavors.
The second phase will bring academic researchers with thorough knowledge of Analytical bias from a theoretical perspective, such as psychology, Human systems research methodologies and decision making, together with those who perform or facilitate weak signal assessment in practice.
A longer term Objective may be to generate a bias awareness pamphlet and video/training guide to improve awareness of bias across the relevant NATO panels.
It is expected that many answers to questions raised in the context of analytical bias in weak signal assessments are available within the community, but that there might be a gap between theory and practice that needs to be investigate, explored and refined. The final activity, which could be relatively brief, could consists of a series of meetings, workshops or communities of interest. For joint exploration of current practices, and how practical issues can be resolved using sound methods based on scientific evidence. Trust between the participants will be key for success. Trust building will be facilitated by the format of a Specialist Team, e.g. keeping discussions within a relatively small group of diverse attendance to broaden perspectives and share experiences is essential to success.
Topics:
The ET should Identify and scope the scientific topics to be explored by the follow-on activity. Some of the topics anticipated to be explored during the follow-on activity are, all of them in the weak signal context,
• What relevant research, e.g. within decision theory, can practitioners use for bias risk management?
• What tools exists for raising awareness about and mitigating bias are specifically useful in this context?
• How to gauge bias in practice? Can it be gauged?
Contact:
Open2Partners:
Title:
Created at 15/03/2024 15:00 by System Account
Last modified at 16/05/2024 21:00 by System Account
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