National_Catalogues: Prospects for Iraq's Stability: Some Security Progress but Political Reconciliation Elusive Update to NIE Prospects for Iraqi's Stability; A Challenging Road Ahead
Title:
Prospects for Iraq's Stability: Some Security Progress but Political Reconciliation Elusive Update to NIE Prospects for Iraqi's Stability; A Challenging Road Ahead
Identifier:
ADA500714
STOAbstractExternal:
This assessment updates the January 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iraq entitled, Prospects for Iraq's Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead; it has been prepared at the direction of the Director of National Intelligence in response to a request from the National Security Council. It provides the Intelligence Community's analysis of the status of the critical factors identified in the January Estimate that are driving Iraq's security and political trajectory. Using the January Estimate as a baseline, this update examines the prospects for progress on the security and national reconciliation fronts over the next six to 12 months. Analytic Caution: Driven largely by the accelerating pace of tribal engagement and the increasing tempo of Coalition operations, developments in Iraq are unfolding more rapidly and with greater complexity today than when we completed our January NIE. Regional variations in security and political circumstances are great and becoming increasingly more distinct, for example, intra-Shia violence in southern Iraq is very different from patterns of violence elsewhere. The intelligence assessments contained in this NIE largely focus on only a short period of the Iraqi conflict--the last six months--and in circumscribed areas--primarily the central provinces, which contain the center of gravity for Iraq's security prospects and in which we have a greater Coalition presence and therefore more information. The unfolding pace and scope of security and political realities in Iraq, combined with our necessarily limited focus of analysis, contain risks: our uncertainties are greater, and our future projections subject to greater chances of error.
STOAuthorExternal:
OFFICE OF THE DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE WASHINGTON DC
STOClassificationExternal:
N
STOKeywordsExternal:
COALITION FORCES
STOPublisher:
USA
Language:
English
STOReportSource:
http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA500714
Published:
8/1/2007
Created at 11/9/2016 3:26 PM by System Account
Last modified at 11/9/2016 3:26 PM by System Account
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