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ACTIVITY_TITLE

Application of Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification to Military Vehicle Design

ACTIVITY_NUMBER

AVT-191

CLASSIFICATION

NU

ACTIVITY_STATUS_LABEL

2

ACTIVITY_LABEL

RTG

START_DATE

01/01/2011

END_DATE

01/12/2014

ACTIVITY_OPEN_TO_PARTNERS

0

KEYWORDS

Sensitivity Analysis; Uncertainty Quantification; Conceptual Design; Verification; Validation

BACKGROUND

Aerospace systems have increased in complexity to the point where traditional development processes based upon the experimentally-based paradigm of test-fix-test is no longer affordable. As a result, development processes are shifting to a simulation-based paradigm of model-test-model. A key to implementing this new paradigm is the use of sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification techniques in conjunction with multi-resolution, physics-based modeling and simulation. The development of high performance aerospace systems will continue to be of interest to NATO for two reasons: First, the emphasis of current military concept operations require the ability to position and maintain intelligence assets at will. Second, the concept of operations also requires the ability to engage key targets with a high degree of precision, especially, in urban settings. Development of systems to provide these capabilities is complex and costly. Advanced modeling and simulation methods coupled with advanced sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification methods must be introduced into system design and development processes to reduce cost, schedule, and development risk of these systems. The AVT-147 Symposium on “Computational Uncertainty in Military Vehicle Design” conducted in Athens, Greece in December of 2007 provides a baseline for current sensitivity analysis and quantitative uncertainty methods. However, the methods presented were demonstrated on simple problems. In order to evaluate the utility and maturity of these methods, it will be necessary to apply them to a set of realistic configuration problems. A number of ongoing AVT activities, such as AVT-113, AVT-161 and AVT-183, may provide relevant problem sets and associated experimental data. This Task Group builds up on the work of AVT-ET-103.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the maturity and suitability of various sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification methods to realistic problems of interest to NATO, to make recommendations for proper use, and to identify areas requiring further development.

TOPICS

Problems and methods investigated will be focused on those dominated by variational uncertainties. This type of uncertainty involves known variations (i.e., the associated distribution functions are known). The computational procedure requires sampling th

ACTIVITY_SUB_NUMBER

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Hyperlink

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Attachments

Created at 01/10/2014 10:15 by System Account
Last modified at 02/11/2014 16:26 by System Account