BACKGROUND |
Aerospace systems have increased in complexity to the point where traditional development processes based upon the experimentally-based paradigm of test-fix-test is no longer affordable. As a result, development processes are shifting to a simulation-based paradigm of model-test-model. A key to implementing this new paradigm is the use of sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification techniques in conjunction with multi-resolution, physics-based modeling and simulation. The development of high performance aerospace systems will continue to be of interest to NATO for two reasons: First, the emphasis of current military concept operations require the ability to position and maintain intelligence assets at will. Second, the concept of operations also requires the ability to engage key targets with a high degree of precision, especially, in urban settings. Development of systems to provide these capabilities is complex and costly. Advanced modeling and simulation methods coupled with advanced sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification methods must be introduced into system design and development processes to reduce cost, schedule, and development risk of these systems. The AVT-147 Symposium on “Computational Uncertainty in Military Vehicle Design” conducted in Athens, Greece in December of 2007 provides a baseline for current sensitivity analysis and quantitative uncertainty methods. However, the methods presented were demonstrated on simple problems. In order to evaluate the utility and maturity of these methods, it will be necessary to apply them to a set of realistic configuration problems. A number of ongoing AVT activities, such as AVT-113, AVT-161 and AVT-183, may provide relevant problem sets and associated experimental data. This Task Group builds up on the work of AVT-ET-103.
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